IR Import Risk Intelligence

Insights

Representative escalation alerts and standing advisories showing how IRI communicates operational risk to clients.

Sample Escalation Alerts + Standing Advisories

Need coverage like this for your imports? Start a conversation →

Escalation Alert
February 2026

Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariff authority; Section 122 15% global surcharge takes effect February 24

Condition: Elevated
Coverage: All clients, U.S. imports (broad based)
Impact: COST: HIGH • TIMING: LOW • EXECUTION: MODERATE
Following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating use of IEEPA tariff authority, the administration issued a Presidential Proclamation imposing a temporary 15% global import surcharge under Section 122, effective February 24 for 150 days. Section 301 and Section 232 duties remain in effect.
Alert issued

February 20, 2026: Alert distributed following publication of the Supreme Court opinion and Presidential Proclamation.

Assessed impact

Cost: Most goods move to a 15% Section 122 surcharge in addition to any applicable Section 301 or Section 232 duties. Immediate landed cost recalculation is required.

Timing: No systemic clearance disruption is expected, but implementation guidance and system updates may create short term processing friction around the February 24 effective date.

Execution: Exemption categories, including USMCA goods, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, and specified electronics, require verification. Unconfirmed SKUs may default to dutiable status pending documentation.

Decision window

Before the February 24 effective date:

Validate exemption status at the SKU and HTS level. Refresh landed cost models using the 15% Section 122 surcharge plus any applicable Section 301 and Section 232 duties. Review duty exposure for in transit shipments and evaluate refund eligibility for previously collected IEEPA duties. Confirm broker entry instructions align with updated surcharge codes before implementation.

Watchpoints

CBP implementation: CSMS messages, ACE updates, and documentation requirements tied to Section 122 entries beginning February 24.

Refund pathway: Treasury or CBP guidance, or Court of International Trade filings, clarifying procedure and timing for IEEPA duty recovery.

Trigger sources
  1. Supreme Court: Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, Opinion , Feb 20, 2026.
  2. White House: Presidential Proclamation, Section 122 temporary import surcharge , effective Feb 24, 2026 (150 days).
  3. White House: Executive Order, termination of certain IEEPA tariff actions
  4. CBP: CSMS Message, ending collection of IEEPA duties / ACE guidance
Escalation Alert
January 2026

Major winter storm warnings issued across central U.S. corridors; elevated rail and intermodal disruption risk

Condition: Elevated Disruption Risk
Coverage: Auto parts importer, U.S. inland rail and intermodal exposure via central corridors and key intermodal hubs
Impact: COST: LOW TO MODERATE • TIMING: HIGH • EXECUTION: MODERATE TO HIGH
National Weather Service winter storm warnings were issued across key Midwest corridors, with heavy snow and ice forecast to affect rail operations. Multiple railroads advised customers of expected service volatility as networks moved into protective operating posture ahead of peak conditions.
Assessed risk

Cost: Secondary costs may emerge if recovery causes bunching, including detention, premium drayage, and exception handling.

Timing: Expect transit variability during storm passage and through the initial recovery phase.

Execution: Railroads may implement speed restrictions, terminal protection measures, and irregular routings as conditions deteriorate.

Decision window

Next 48 to 96 hours: Pre impact posture period.

Identify priority containers moving through affected corridors and authorize contingency options, including alternate linehaul or premium drayage, if transit slips beyond acceptable thresholds. Convert fixed delivery commitments into buffered ETA ranges and prepare DC receiving teams for uneven arrivals during recovery.

Watchpoints

NWS updates: Upgrades from watch to warning and adjustments to snowfall or ice accumulation forecasts.

Rail advisories: Language referencing service impacts, embargoes, or extended transit times.

Recovery signals: Carrier language indicating network normalization or backlog reduction after storm passage.

Trigger sources
  1. National Weather Service: Winter Storm Warnings (official warning products by forecast office) , Jan 22, 2026.
  2. Norfolk Southern: Significant Winter Weather Alert, Jan 21, 2026.
  3. BNSF: Customer notification, major winter storm expected to affect network, Jan 22, 2026.
Escalation Alert
September 2025

Hong Kong Observatory raises Signal No. 8; South China and Hong Kong terminals suspend operations ahead of Typhoon Ragasa

Condition: Critical
Coverage: Apparel importer, Asia exports via South China and Hong Kong gateways (vessel schedules, feeder connections, rollover risk)
Impact: COST: MODERATE • TIMING: HIGH • EXECUTION: HIGH
Following issuance of Hong Kong Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal No. 8, multiple South China and Hong Kong terminals suspended vessel and gate operations. Carriers began warning of schedule disruption, port call resequencing, and rollover risk as the storm approached peak intensity.
Alert issued

September 22, 2025: Alert distributed following Signal No. 8 issuance and confirmation of terminal suspensions.

Assessed impact

Cost: Limited direct cost unless mode shift is required; secondary cost risk rises through rolled cargo and premium recovery services.

Timing: Vessel and feeder schedules are likely to shift 2 to 5 days beyond the closure window; transshipment connections remain vulnerable.

Execution: Elevated risk of omitted port calls, blank sailings, feeder disruption, and unstable downstream ETAs during the restart phase.

Decision window

Next 48 to 96 hours:

Identify containers scheduled to load or transship via Hong Kong or South China during the storm window. Authorize carrier reroute or alternate port options where time sensitivity requires. Convert fixed ETA commitments to buffered ranges and prepare for feeder misalignment during recovery.

Watchpoints

Hong Kong Observatory: Downgrade of cyclone signal level.

Terminal operators: Confirmation that gate and vessel operations have resumed.

Carrier advisories: Omitted port calls, rolled bookings, and revised pro forma schedules.

Trigger sources
  1. Hong Kong Observatory: Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal No. 8 issued, Sep 22, 2025.
  2. Hong Kong Marine Department / Terminal Notices: Suspension of port and terminal operations under typhoon signal conditions, Sep 22, 2025.
  3. Carrier advisories (multiple): Service disruption notices and port call adjustments related to Typhoon Ragasa, Sep 22 to 23, 2025.
Standing Advisory (Monthly Monitoring Module)
February 2026

Panama Canal water levels and transit restrictions; sustained timing and cost risk for Asia to U.S. East and Gulf Coast routings

Condition: Elevated
Coverage: Clients with Asia origin cargo moving to U.S. East Coast or Gulf Coast ports via Panama Canal routings
Impact: COST: MODERATE TO HIGH • TIMING: MODERATE TO HIGH • EXECUTION: MODERATE
Water availability in the Panama Canal watershed remains a structural operating constraint. Slot limits, draft restrictions, and cautious water management posture can reduce routing flexibility and contribute to schedule instability, longer transit times, and periodic freight rate pressure for cargo moving between Asia and the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.
Operational relevance

Cost: Canal restrictions can contribute to rate volatility, longer inventory carry, and higher routing costs if carriers shift services or favor alternate networks.

Timing: Reduced transit slots and draft limits may extend voyage times or create schedule drift, especially during peak shipping cycles.

Execution: Carrier service adjustments, revised rotation plans, and routing shifts may affect reliability for East Coast and Gulf Coast cargo planning.

Monitoring signals

Panama Canal Authority advisories: Daily transit slot allocations, draft restrictions, and water management notices.

Watershed conditions: Gatun Lake levels and rainfall outlook affecting available operating capacity.

Carrier posture: Service revisions, transit advisories, skipped calls, or rerouting language affecting canal dependent loops.

Escalation triggers (becomes an EA if…)

Transit tightening: Meaningful reduction in daily slots or tighter draft restrictions affecting vessel planning.

Carrier network disruption: Broad service revisions, reroutes, or visible queue growth affecting Asia to U.S. East or Gulf Coast schedules.

Peak season pressure: Canal constraints coincide with seasonal volume growth, materially worsening lead time reliability or landed cost.

Monitoring inputs
  1. Panama Canal Authority: Maritime advisories and transit updates
  2. Panama Canal Authority: Official operating updates and watershed context
  3. Carrier advisories (multiple): Service notices referencing canal transit limitations, routing changes, or schedule adjustments.
Standing Advisory (Monthly Monitoring Module)
February 2026

Mexico overland disruption and cargo security; elevated exposure for U.S. spirits importer lanes

Condition: Elevated
Coverage: U.S. spirits importer, Mexico overland corridors to primary U.S. commercial border crossings (lane specific)
Impact: COST: MODERATE • TIMING: MODERATE • EXECUTION: MODERATE
Mexico overland corridors periodically experience disruption, cargo theft concentration, and security posture shifts that can materially affect spirits shipments with high cargo value moving to U.S. border crossings. This standing advisory is maintained under continuous monitoring and referenced in monthly updates.
Operational relevance

Timing: Pickup and linehaul delays, missed border windows, and commercial wait time spikes can cascade into late delivery and inventory gaps.

Cost: Premium trucking or security requirements, detention risk from missed appointments, and tighter insurance constraints may raise landed cost.

Execution: Carrier refusals, reroutes, and evolving security requirements can alter lane assumptions with limited notice.

Monitoring signals

Embassy security alerts: Shifts in on the ground security posture affecting freight corridors.

Border indicators: Sustained commercial wait time spikes at key crossings.

Theft concentration data: Corridor and state trend reporting used to refine posture in monthly outlooks.

Escalation triggers (becomes an EA if…)

Sustained corridor disruption: Verified blockades, unrest, or closures affecting primary lanes or crossings.

Security posture shift: Credible reporting of elevated theft activity affecting spirits shipments with high cargo value on monitored corridors.

Carrier constraint: Capacity tightening or new insurance or security requirements materially altering cost or timing.

Monitoring inputs
  1. U.S. Embassy Mexico: Security Alerts (official postings)
  2. CBP: Border Wait Times (commercial crossings)
  3. Overhaul Intelligence: Mexico cargo theft trend reporting

Want this kind of coverage tailored to your lanes, products, and suppliers?

Start a conversation →